Agence France-Presse . Manila
More than 140 million people could be plunged into poverty and 23 million lose their jobs in Asia this year as the global financial crisis batters the region, according to a study released Wednesday.
The crisis could also slow rural-to-urban migration, with many facing the prospect of returning to low-paid agricultural jobs as factories and firms lay off workers, the International Labour Organisation report said.
And as unemployment rises, it is imperative for countries in the region to use fiscal stimulus packages for safety nets to prevent widespread social unrest from erupting, officials said.
‘A dramatic increase in working poverty of more than 140 million people by 2009 is projected under this scenario, representing regression of the Asia and Pacific region to a working poverty rate of 2004,’ the study said.
‘These projections are not just numbers, they carry with them a real risk that children may be forced to withdraw from school in order to work and support their families,’ it said.
It said the region’s robust growth in the past was not matched by ‘broad-based gains in real wages,’ leading to sharp inequalities in many countries.
‘The substantial growth slowdown taking place is likely to lead to stagnant or falling real wages, with the potential for increased incidences of wage related disputes,’ the study said.
ILO regional director Sachiko Yamamoto noted the situation was quickly evolving ‘into an employment and social crisis.’
‘Its impact is deeply felt in both industrialised and developing countries in Asia,’ she told senior policy makers from 11 countries at a meeting in Manila, stressing that the downturn’s ‘magnitude and speed has been astounding.’
The region too is at the tipping point of seeing social unrest explode into the streets, as the jobless and marginalised demand greater government action.