Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina at European Development Day 2009

The Prime Minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina Wajed  addressed the plenary session of the 4th European Development Day 2009, titled `Climate Change: The Road to Copenhagen and Beyond‘, on 24 October 2009 at the Victoria Hall in the Swedish capital.

Observing re-budgeting and readjusting of existing development assistance to developing countries, particularly LDCs, would jeopardize their ongoing projects and programs, she said that Bangladesh and other most vulnerable countries (MVC) to climate change are anxiously looking forward to Copenhagen.

The Following demands, she placed to the international communities to face the challeges of climate change:

• Establishing a realistic fund for Bangladesh and other least developed and developing countries for their climate change requirements. 

 

•  The financing to the climate victim nations should not be loans, and the scale of finance should be revised with changes in the adaptation needs.

 

• The international community to reject all myopic, self-centred discords, reject the culture of excess and waste, to embrace one another’s responsibility, burden, prosperity, and live in harmony within the planet’s capacity.

 

•  The climate change adaptation financing must be additional to and distinct from ODA targets of 0.7% of Gross National Income meant for the developing countries and 0.2% for LDCs by 2010, as reaffirmed in the Brussels Program of Action.

 

• Besides, out of this fund, every year a substantial amount should be kept aside for adaptation needs of developing countries with maximum share going to low lying coastal countries, LDCs and the small-island developing countries.

 

• Though Bangladesh established a US$ 45 million Climate Change Fund with own resources, and there is also a Multi-Donor Trust Fund of US$ 150 million with support of the United Kingdom, the amounts are meagre in comparison to the needs.

 

• Adopting a new legal regime under the UNFCCC Protocol ensuring social, cultural and economic rehabilitation of climate refugees from COP 15 in Copenhagen.

 

• The outcome in the Copenhagen meet must uphold the core principle of common but differentiated share of responsibility; assured, adequate, and easily accessible funding for adaptation; access to scientific information to climate change in sectors like risk reduction, water resources, agriculture, energy, urban planning and health disorders.

 

• The Copenhagen meet must also ensure affordable, eco-friendly technology transfer to developing countries, particularly to LDCs; make maximum possible specific commitments for deeper cuts in greenhouse gas emissions for atmospheric stabilisation.

 

• The post 2012 agreement must, however, incorporate predictable and legally binding commitments for addressing adaptation needs of low lying, coastal, and small-island developing states, and LDCs.

 

• Establishing an international adaptation centre under UNFCCC.

 

• Setting up  a Himalayan Council in the model of the Artic Council to assist similarly affected countries in facing the challenges of glacial melting in the Himalayas.

More:

» Hasina calls for realistic fund for climate change ;

» Raise realistic fund for climate battle;

» Global Climate Change Debate: Where We are?;

» Change We Need, But Climate .

Global Climate Change Debate: Where we are?

About 17 percent of the Bangladesh’s land and 13 percent of agricultural activities would be affected if there is one metre sea-level rise. So, Bangladesh must have a national consensus regarding its stance for negotiation in Copenhagen. It should be discussed and debated in parliament.

Bangladesh as a most vulnerable country (MVC) of climate change  wants a fair and safe deal in Copenhagen, particularly for billions of poor and vulnerable people whose governments cannot afford to pay to fix the problem. The rich countries should pay attention to the lives in billions of people rather gaining financial benefit. 

In December of this year, the UN conference of parties (COP) is going to conduct its 15th conference to set a long term goals to tackle down climate change. Environmental activists are spending busy time to prepare the draft outline of COP-15. But would we win the diplomacy of rich countries? We should learn from the ongoing debate to take control on negotiations of climate talks.

The Natural Fix? The Role of Ecosystems in Climate Mitigation, a study of United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) stated that expanding the capacity of natural areas for capturing and storing carbon is one of the keys to curbing climate change, and would be a relatively low-cost solution that would also improve the quality of life of millions of farmers. More attention must be paid to natural carbon absorption, along with cutting greenhouse gases caused by humans. The report called for the adoption of a “comprehensive policy framework” on management of carbon – the main greenhouse gas – which would include the conservation and restoration of ecosystems and the management of grasslands and agricultural areas.

But the global environmental watchdog Greenpeace says the natural capacity of ecosystems to capture carbon is not a priority in the negotiations among governments ahead of the December UN Climate Convention Meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark. María José Cárdenas, head of the Greenpeace Mexico climate and energy campaign said, “If no progress has been made in setting timeframes for emissions cuts by developed countries, even less progress has been made in the case of carbon management”.  The aim of the Denmark meeting is to sign a new international climate change agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, in effect since 2005, the 37 industrialised countries committed themselves to cutting their greenhouse gas emissions by five percent on average, from 1990 levels, by target dates ranging from 2008 to 2012. Some of the countries, like Canada, have already admitted that they will not reach the target. The United States, which is responsible for one-quarter of global greenhouse gases, is not a party to the Kyoto Protocol, on the decision of former president George W. Bush (2001-2009). His successor President Barack Obama has pledged to sign the new agreement that is to emerge from the Denmark conference, and said his country would assume clear commitments on air pollution. But his administration has not referred to the need for new agreements to enhance natural carbon sequestration.

Greenpeace activist Cárdenas also said, “There is talk about a renewed interest in negotiating emissions reduction commitments, but in practice the crisis is being used to maintain the consumerist system that has generated the climate change problems we are suffering today,”

In May 2009,  Australia, Brazil, Britain, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and the United States, as well as the European Union (EU) gathered together at a meeting named Major Economies Forum (MEF) where the ministers of these big economies were heard that 80 percent of the globe’s greenhouse gases and `world’s destiny’ may lie in the outcome of the mooted climate change pact. The French Ecology Minister Jean-Louis Borloo, opening the gathering of the so-called Major Economies Forum (MEF), pointed to the aim of forging a planet-wide treaty in Copenhagen in December under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). He briefed in his addressing, “The world’s destiny will probably be at stake in Copenhagen. Copenhagen is not a retrograde vision, it’s not the start of negative growth, but a new start for strong, sustainable, sober carbon development”.

The state minister for Environment and Forest Mostafizur Rahman said at conference organised by organised by Campaign for Sustainable Rural Livelihood (CSRL) in July 2009 the developed countries, which are mostly responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, should come forward to ensure the survival of vulnerable countries like Bangladesh by providing due compensations. He also demand, “We do hope that the Annex-1 countries would unconditionally contribute to our national fund as compensation and support the process of managing it [fund] through our national mechanisms determined by us,”.

In the same conference, Bangladesh with other MVCs demanded the developed countries to reduce their emission by 45 percent in aggregate against 1990 levels by 2020 and make available fund of $150 billion a year to help protect the victims. They also demanded that annex 1 Parties (developed nations) must reduce their emission by at least 45 percent in aggregate against 1990 levels by 2020 and at least 95 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. The MVCs also urged  all Parties to the UNFCCC to ensure that an agreement is reached at COP15 to ensure survival of billions of people of the globe.  

‘I came here with deep concerns of our people, who no sooner had tasted democracy than confronted with critical, dire impacts of climate change,’ addressing the World Climate Conference-3 on September 2009  at Geneva International Conference Centre, the prime minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, sought technological and financial supports from the international community, particularly resourceful developed countries, to combat the challenges of climate change as Bangladesh is considered one of the worst sufferers for the climatic disorders for no fault of its own.

She said, `A one-metre rise of sea level would inundate a third of Bangladesh, and this would result in mass migration northwards, imposing increasing pressure on land and resources and loss livelihood of about 40 million people. There is no doubt that human-induced climate change is, to a large extent, responsible for these phenomena and, ironically, the people of Bangladesh are least to be blamed for them.’

 

 For more:  please read 

She also pointed out, ‘the challenge to Bangladesh in facing natural disasters from global warming and climate change is monumental,’ she told the global meet on the most worrying problem that threatens the planet as a whole.

Blog Action Day

Write a post about climate change on October 15, 2009.

Blog Action Day is this Thursday, October 15! We’re excited to report that more than 5000 bloggers have already registered from 126 countries, with more signing up each day.  If you haven’t registered yet, it is not too late. Sign up here: http://www.blogactionday.org/en/blogs/new

Once you’ve signed up all you need to do is write a post about climate change this Thursday. We’ll have a live feed of all your posts on our homepage so you can track the conversation.

But, you may be asking, what am I going to write about?

We’re here to help. Climate climate impacts nearly all aspects of our lives, from business and technology to food, transportation and travel. Here’s a list of ideas and places to look for inspiration when deciding what to post on Thursday.

Food: Agricultural production around the world is responsible for nearly as much greenhouse gas emissions as all forms of transportation put together, so it shouldn’t be surprising that the food choices we make have a big impact on the climate. Read more and check out a few explanatory videos here.

Travel: More than 30 top travel blogs are participating in Blog Action Day. Check out who’s blogging and get ideas for writing about the connection between travel, geography, transit and climate change.

Events: If you want to write about what people around the world are doing locally to take action on climate change, check out our friends at 350.org. They’re organizing an International Day of Climate Action around the world on October 24. You can also check out their tools specifically for bloggers. For more events and actions to write about, go to: http://blogactionday.org/en/takeaction.

Business: Take a look at our post on 5 Ways Climate Change Will Change Business in the 21st Century to get some ideas of where climate change will have a big impact, and opportunities for the business sector.

Politics: It’s hard to ignore the connection between climate change and politics — from international negotiations to local and domestic policy debates. We’ve profiled some of the best political blogs participating in Blog Action Day this year where you can brush up on the inside information.

None of these topics fit your interest? We just put up a blog post with a longer list of topics and how they connect to climate, including design, technology, family, health and more. Take a look and add your ideas in the comments for everyone to see.

How you write about the way climate change affects our lives is up to you. The most important thing is that you participate so that together, we can help create an expanding global conversation about one of the most important issues we face.

 

UN Summit on Climate Change

The objective of the Summit on Climate Change, which I am convening on 22 September, is to mobilize the political will and vision needed to reach an ambitious agreed outcome based on science at the UN climate talks in Copenhagen.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon

On 22 September 2009 – UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is convening a Summit on Climate Change at UN Headquarters in New York. The Summit aims to mobilize the political will and vision needed to reach an ambitious agreed climate deal at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen this December. Guided by the Secretary-General’s background paper, the Summit provides a forum where Heads of State or Government can examine fundamental issues and find common ground in roundtable discussions. Key political issues that will receive attention are adaptation assistance to the poorest and most vulnerable; mid-term mitigation targets for develo! ped countries; slowing emissions’ growth in developing countries; financial and technological support; and institutional arrangements and governance structures.
At the Summit a luncheon by the UN Leadership Forum on Climate Change will also be organized. The latter aims to stimulate interaction between Heads of State/Government, business and civil society leaders and to discuss the role of business and public-private cooperation in the climate change debate, in particular focussing on food security; energy solutions; water security; sustainable enterprises and decent work; financing; and disaster preparedness and risk reduction.

PM seeks world help to address climate-change challenges

The prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, sought technological and financial supports from the international community, particularly resourceful developed countries, to combat the challenges of climate change as Bangladesh is considered one of the worst sufferers for the climatic disorders for no fault of its own.
Addressing the World Climate Conference-3 Thursday at Geneva International Conference Centre, she explained to the world leadership Bangladesh’s vulnerability to the climate change and apprised them of her government’s plans, programmes and strategies for protecting the country’s people from the disastrous impacts of the global warming caused by excessive carbon emissions.
Earlier on her arrival at the CICG at 9:15am (local time), the World Meteorological Organisation secretary general, Michel Jarraud, received the Bangladesh leader. Foreign minister Dipu Moni, state minister for forest and environment Hasan Mahmud, foreign secretary Mijarul Quayes, ambassador M Ziauddin, PM’s press secretary Abul Kalam Azad and permanent representative to Geneva Mission Abdul Hannan were present.
‘I came here with deep concerns of our people, who no sooner had tasted democracy than confronted with critical, dire impacts of climate change,’ a worried prime minister of Bangladesh told her audience at the UN-sponsored WCC-3 meet.
 She observed that through the decades since independence, whatever progress the nation could achieve is being eroded by repeated and increasing vagaries of nature.  ‘There is no doubt that human-induced climate change is, to a large extent, responsible for these phenomena and, ironically, the people of Bangladesh are least to be blamed for them,’ Hasina said.
She said tackling the formidable challenges facing Bangladesh due to the climate change calls for help of the international community.  To substantiate her call for international aid, the prime minister informed the conference that Bangladesh is among the countries severely affected by climate change, and estimates indicate that 20 million Bangladeshis would require relocation due to climate-change impacts by 2050.
A one-metre rise of sea level would inundate a third of Bangladesh, and this would result in mass migration northwards, imposing increasing pressure on land and resources and loss livelihood of about 40 million people, the prime minister said.
Hasina further pointed out that the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction has ranked Bangladesh as the most vulnerable country to floods, third-most to tsunami and sixth-most to cyclones, in terms of human exposure.  At present, Bangladesh is experiencing erratic patterns of flooding and droughts, and these have also become a threat to ensuring food security, through sustained agricultural production.
 She said cyclones hit the coastal region regularly, causing tragic loss of innumerable lives and immense material damage. Besides, Bangladesh also faces riverbank erosion, landslides, soil degradation and deforestation.  An alarming phenomenon is salinity intrusion into the coastal areas, threatening the Sundarban, world’s largest mangrove forest—a habitat of rich biodiversity and UNESCO-recognised World Heritage Site.
‘The challenge to Bangladesh in facing natural disasters from global warming and climate change is monumental,’ she told the global meet on the most worrying problem that threatens the planet as a whole.  Hasina continued: Bangladesh, due to its geographical location, has faced natural disasters and, therefore, invested over $10 billion since its independence on flood-management schemes, coastal polders, cyclone and flood shelters, and elevation of roads and highways above flood level.
Recently, she said, the government of Bangladesh has established a Climate Change Fund, with its own resources, to expand community-based disaster preparedness, and adaptation programmes.  Bangladesh is eager to collaborate with world community in the areas of mitigation, adaptation, financing, investment, and transfer of technology for facing these new threats on mankind, she said.

Source: The Daily New Age, 04 September 2009

World headed for climate abyss: UN chief
Agence France-Presse . Geneva

The world is accelerating towards a climate catastrophe, the UN chief, Ban Ki-moon, warned on Thursday, urging rapid progress in talks to cut emissions and tackle global warming.   ‘Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss,’ the UN secretary general said in a speech to the World Climate Conference.
   Ban, who this week visited the Arctic to witness first hand the changes wrought by global warming, warned that many of the ‘more distant scenarios’ predicted by scientists were ‘happening now.’
   ‘Scientists have been accused for years of scaremongering. But the real scaremongers are those who say we cannot afford climate action — that it will hold back economic growth,’ he said.
   ‘They are wrong. Climate change could spell widespread disaster,’ Ban warned.
   The UN leader pinned his hopes of a breakthrough on a summit of world leaders in New York this month to discuss climate change.
   Talks on extending the Kyoto protocol on emissions cuts in time for December’s Copenhagen conference had been too limited and slow, he said.
   ‘We have 15 negotiating days left until Copenhagen. We cannot afford limited progress. We need rapid progress,’ he added, criticising ‘inertia’ towards climate change.
   The UN chief warned that the price of failure in Copenhagen would be high ‘not just for future generations, but for this generation.’
   Ban later reiterated that a pledge by the Group of 8 industrialised countries this summer for a long-term 80 per cent cut in emissions by 2050 was not sufficient.
   ‘I continue to believe that they should have a mid-term target, I’m going to continue on that with the G8 and G20 (leading economies),’ he told journalists.
   The UN secretary general has carried out several climate-related visits since he took the helm of the world body, including to Antarctica. He also saw advancing deserts in Chad and the diminishing Amazonian rainforest in Brazil.
   Visibly sobered by his Arctic visit, he warned that rising sea levels, partly generated by melting ice in the polar region, would threaten major cities and potentially up to 130 million people.
   Climate change was also triggering a rush for natural resources in the Arctic as sea passages opened up, he warned.

Source: The Daily New Age, 04 September 2009

India carbon emmissions to triple by 2030

 

Agence France-Presse . New Delhi

India’s per capita greenhouse gas emissions are expected to nearly triple in the next two decades, but will still remain below the current global average, a government-backed report said.
   The data released late on Wednesday showed the current per capita rate at around 1.2 tonnes per year, compared to the global average of 4.22 tonnes.
   Five different studies released by independent institutions concluded that India’s per capita emissions of carbon dioxide equivalent would reach 2.1 tonnes in 2020 and 3.5 tonnes in 2030.
   India’s per capita output is one of the lowest globally, but given its massive population it is one of the top polluters in the world.
   Speaking at the launch, the environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, said the data would help to inform debate at global climate change talks in Copenhagen in December.
   ‘India should be seen to be part of the solution,’ he said.
   But Ramesh cautioned that the numbers were ‘open to peer review’ and that the government did not agree with all of them.
   The studies found that India’s total emissions are estimated to reach between four billion and 7.3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2031.
   India has long rejected binding carbon emission targets on the grounds that they would hinder economic growth and development.
   More than 180 nations are due to negotiate an agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol climate treaty in Copenhagen in December.
   Ramesh reiterated a promise by the prime minister, Manmohan Singh, that India’s per capita emissions would never exceed those of developed nations, but credited energy efficiency options rather than mitigation strategies for the projections.

Source: The Daily New Age, 04 September 2009 

Change We Need, But the Climate!

Near of the Lukla Airport, a lake has been created within last 3 decades, Funuratna Sherpa, a Nepali Youth said to AFP. The Youth runs a cyber cafe for the tourists at the Lukla, most nearest city of Mount Everest. Refering his grandfather experiences, Funuratna said that 50 years ago, there was no lake. But it has created day by day due to melting graciers within last 3 decades due to increasing tempreture. He heard a forcasts from scientists that Imja glaciers turn about 70 meters per year and it creats lake in near of Dengbouch villege.  Funuratna fears that oneday his home in Dengbouch will go under water due to melting glaciers if tempreture rises in future.

Funuratna spreads the fear to us also. because our major river Padma and Brahmaputra comes from Himalayas. If the glaciers melts and if we can not stop it, then we will go under flood water while we also hearing the forecast of scientists that the coastal belt of Bangladesh will go under water for climate change due to rising tempreture.

So, we need to stop it. Yes, from Now! But how? Environmental activists and scientists asks the rich countries to  take measure to reduce greenhouse gas emission, major factor for climate change, 45 percent by 2020 and 95 percent 2050. But it seems that the global leaders hardly hear this cry, some of them are just crying for adaptation. Adaptation means technolology transfer; technology transfer means another business opportunity. How funny! the diplomacy on climate change.

In December of this year, the UN conference of parties (COP) is going to conduct its 15th conference to set a long term goals to tackle down climate change. Environmental activists are spending busy time to prepare the draft outline of COP-15. But would we win the diplomacy of rich countries?

To meet environmental challenge, most countries, back in 1992, joined the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The objective of UNFCCC is to stabilise the atmospheric content of greenhouse gases at a level that prevents dangerous human-made climate change. The convention is a “framework convention.” This means that it is a comprehensive tool for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, but contains no binding obligations to reduce them.

Fear comes from it. Bearing all fear as losser, we should remind the rich countries that climate change does not create threat only for poor countries, rather it creates threat for human civilisation. So, if human civilisation destroys, then all diplomacy of yours will be defeated in a second. So, change we need, but the climate. This is the message.

Climate change to challenge US military on many levels: NYT

Climate change will pose profound strategic challenges to the United States in coming decades, raising the prospect of military intervention to deal with the effects of violent storms, drought, mass migration and pandemics, The New York Times reported late Saturday.
   Citing military and intelligence analysts, the newspaper said climate-induced crises could topple governments, feed terrorist movements or destabilise entire regions.
   Analysts, experts at the Pentagon and intelligence agencies for the first time are taking a serious look at the national security implications of climate change, the report said.
   Recent war games and intelligence studies conclude that over the next 20 to 30 years, vulnerable regions, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South and Southeast Asia, will face the prospect of food shortages, water crises and catastrophic flooding driven by climate change that could demand an US humanitarian relief or military response, the paper noted.
   An exercise at the National Defence University last December explored the potential impact of a flood in Bangladesh that sent hundreds of thousands of refugees streaming into neighbouring India, touching off religious conflict, the spread of contagious diseases and vast damage to infrastructure, according to The Times.
   ‘It gets real complicated real quickly,’ the report quoted as saying Amanda Dory, deputy assistant secretary of defence for strategy, who is working with a Pentagon group assigned to incorporate climate change into national security strategy planning.
   A changing climate presents a range of challenges for the military, the paper pointed out, because many of its critical installations are vulnerable to rising seas and storm surges.
   In Florida, Homestead Air Force Base was essentially destroyed by Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and Hurricane Ivan badly damaged Naval Air Station Pensacola in 2004, The Times noted.
   Military planners are studying ways to protect the major naval stations in Norfolk, Virginia, and San Diego, California, from climate-induced rising seas and severe storms.
   Another vulnerable installation is Diego Garcia, an atoll in the Indian Ocean, that serves as a logistics hub for US and British forces and sits a few feet above sea level.

Source: The Daily New Age, 10 August 2009

British-Bangladesh Initiative: Groups to study climate change

Enquiry report to be submitted at Copenhagen summit to ensure equity

Staff Correspondent

The all-party parliamentary groups on climate change and environment of Bangladesh and the UK have teamed up to launch a joint enquiry into climate change.

The enquiry report will be presented at the Copenhagen climate change summit and will be sent to the two governments. It is anticipated that it will also be discussed in Bangladesh and UK parliaments, says a press statement.

The parliamentary committees of the two countries–one in a least developed country grappling with adaptation and the other in one of the richest countries in the developed world professing mitigation–will conduct the enquiry specifically on “Climate change equity: is it a plan, an aspiration or a fashion statement?”

Chairs of the two parliamentary groups, Saber Hossain Chowdhury of Bangladesh and Colin Challen of the UK, yesterday launched the enquiry, which seeks to gain a better insight on how the two countries view the challenges of climate change equity.

Although least responsible for the problem, Bangladesh is a country most at threat from climate change while the UK is often regarded as one of those–if not the leader–in shaping climate change policy.

In the statement, Saber Hossain Chowdhury said climate change for Bangladesh is a development challenge as well as an issue of human rights and justice.

“An equitable deal in Copenhagen will only be possible if we are able to have clarity and consensus on the concept of equity in climate change negotiations and this would then hopefully pave the way for resolving the burden sharing riddle. This enquiry will bring this question into sharp focus,” he said.

Colin Challen said the need for the enquiry is overwhelming. “We want the result of this enquiry to be presented in Copenhagen.” Many countries with very low carbon dioxide footprints, like Bangladesh, are prevented from benefiting from mechanisms like the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Challen added.

He further said Bangladesh has only seen two of these projects implemented in the entire history of the CDM, which for a country of 100 million plus population is clearly inequitable. Countries like Bangladesh did not cause climate change, but they also seem to be penalised for it. This enquiry will look at this and related issues.

In the statement, Saber and Challen sought for evidences by October 12, within 3,000 words and in electronic form, from all who are concerned to achieve, and are working towards, an equitable and fully inclusive deal on climate change in Copenhagen.

The submissions might be sent to saberchowdhury@yahoo.com  and colinchallenmp@parliament.uk.

Source: The Daily Star, 09 August 2009

Uncertainties surround future monsoons

It is almost halfway through the rainy season, and the monsoon in many parts of South Asia continues to remain unreliable.

In some places it has been crippling weak, while in others it has been devastatingly intense.

There are places reeling from drought, yet at the same time there are areas that have been hit by torrential rains, triggering floods and landslides in a very short span of time.

This has made the lives of millions of people difficult and has left them increasingly worried for the future.

Very little of the arable land is irrigated, and local populations depend on monsoon rainfall for agriculture.

Crops in the region are dependent upon the annual monsoon rains

The monsoon clouds have weakened in several parts of the region and the variable and erratic rains have left weather forecasters scratching their heads.

This failure of the monsoons to behave as expected has led to the question of whether climate change is to blame.

Experts differ on whether these changes are directly linked to climate.

“This year’s monsoon behaviour cannot yet be attributed to climate change as it is still within the observed natural variability of the monsoon,” said Krishna Kumar Kanikicharla, a scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

“Our assessment of climate model simulations for the current and the next century indicate no significant deviation until the middle of the 21st Century. Thereafter, the monsoon rainfall will continue to increase by 8-10% from current levels.”

A regional research centre in Bangladesh found what it called “cyclic changes”, but has identified no effects so far that can be attributed to climate change.

A gloomy forecast

The South Asian monsoon normally begins in June and lasts around four months. The Indian Meteorological Department in April had forecast an optimistic 96% of long-term average rainfall.

Without the rains, young crops soon perish and die

But in the last week of June, by which time the monsoon clouds should normally have moved northward from the Indian ocean, they were hardly moving.

With farmers in Northern India postponing their crop plantations and authorities cutting the supply of stored water for irrigation, the government had to scale down its rainfall forecast to 93% of the long-term average rainfall.

In neighbouring Bangladesh, the situation was even worse; it saw 80% lower rainfall than what would normally be the case.

An unusually long dry spell fanned several wildfires earlier this year. Nepal too saw delays in the arrival of its precious monsoon clouds.

When they reached northern areas of the region by the third week of July, many places began to see heavy precipitation.

Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka, saw more than 33cm of rainfall in about 24 hours – the greatest amount for many years.

Floods have wreaked havoc in many parts of north-east India, and nearly three dozen people have died in Nepal as a result of monsoon-triggered landslides.

At least another dozen are missing from remote Nepalese mountain areas.

Yet many areas in this region still remain parched.

Until the middle of this week, northern and south-western parts of Bangladesh have had about 40% lower rainfall than the average.

Some parts of northern India have been declared drought-hit by local governments.

Almost the same is the case in eastern Nepal, where rainfall is around 50% lower than normal.

Meteorological officials in Pakistan say most parts of the country have remained more or less dry, with average rainfall limited to only 50% of normal precipitation.

“Even where it has rained, the rainfall is around 30% lower than normal,” said Qamar Zaman Chaudhary, director-general of Pakistan’s met office.

“Figures [from recent years] show that monsoon rainfall is gradually decreasing – year on year.”

Patchy cloud

Over the past five years, even though total rainfall has not deviated far from the average in these countries, the distribution has been quite uneven.

Farmers could struggle to keep their crops alive

Some places have experienced heavy rainfall while others have seen far smaller amounts of rain and have been hit by drought.

And dangerously unpredictable rainfall such as that which claimed hundreds of lives in Mumbai in 2005 is on the rise.

In yet another unusual development, places that received smaller amounts of rainfall have begun to receive more rain. While what used to be relatively wet areas are now becoming drier.

Some researchers suggest that this is a natural “shift” in the pattern of rainfall.

“We studied three 30-year window periods from 1951 to 2000 and found that there was a slow shift in the rainfall scenarios,” said Sujit Kumar Deb Sarma, a researcher with the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Meteorological Research Centre in Bangladesh.

“Places that got more rain are receiving lower rainfall and vice versa.

“But we also found that after some time the rainfall patterns go back to what they were before and slowly start changing again. It’s a cyclic change that has been happening [for] years.”

But authorities in Pakistan believe the falling monsoon rainfall may have been the result of climate change.

“There may have been some impacts of climate change,” said Mr Chaudhry of the Pakistan Met Office.

“We know that the El Nino events have been affecting our rainfall all these years, but climate change could be aggravating the situation even more.”

Meteorologists in Nepal too think global warming may have some role in the changing monsoon pattern the country has been experiencing.

“There are so many factors including the El Nino effect that have been affecting the monsoon but we cannot say that these changes are not because of global warming,” said Mani Ratna Shakya, head of the weather forecasting division.

The monsoon season is welcomed by most people in an otherwise arid region

 

International studies have also pointed at the relationship between the monsoon and climate change.

A study by researchers at Purdue University, US, found that the South Asian monsoon could be weakened and delayed as a result of rising temperatures in the future.

“Climate change could influence monsoon dynamics and cause lower summer precipitation, a delay to the start of the monsoon season and longer breaks between the rainy periods.”

Another report recently prepared for the Australian government has shown that potentially greater threats could be abrupt changes to the oceans and atmosphere that lead to irreversible switches in weather or ocean patterns – so-called tipping points.

“An example is the Indian monsoon. According to some models that could switch into a drier mode in a matter of years,” the report’s author Will Steffen, executive director of the Climate Change Institute at the Australian National University, told Reuters.

The fourth assessment report of the IPCC had this to say about the monsoon: “It is likely that warming associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will cause an increase of Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability.

“Changes in the monsoon mean duration and strength depend on the details of the (greenhouse gases) emission scenario.”

Do the changes mean weather forecasters will have a tough time ahead predicting the monsoon as they have had this year?

Indian Meteorological Department chief BP Yadav admitted that could be the case: “There are already some indications of increase in the variability of weather parameters, so when you have a high variability in any events like rainfall or temperature, definitely the work of predicting them becomes more difficult,” he said.

Source: BBC News

CLIMATE CHANGE: 75 Million Environmental Refugees to Plague Asia-Pacific

SYDNEY, Aug 4 (IPS) – Pacific Islanders, aiming to secure their very survival, are calling for immediate commitments from the developed world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 45 percent by 2020.

“For us, climate change is a reality. We have been experiencing high tidal waves, which has not been the case earlier,” Pelenise Alofa Pilitati, Chairperson of the Church Education Director’s Association in Kiribati, told IPS. “High tides and sea level rise will submerge our homeland. We don’t want to become environmental refugees.”

Climate change could produce eight million refugees in the Pacific Islands, along with 75 million refugees in the Asia Pacific region in the next 40 years, warns a new report by aid agency, Oxfam Australia.

The report points out that “For countries like Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Marshall Islands, Fiji, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea and the Federated States of Micronesia, climate change is not something that could happen in the future but something they are experiencing now.”

The Oxfam report documents how people are coping with more frequent flooding and storm surges, losing land and being forced from their homes, facing increased food and water shortages, and dealing with rising incidence of malaria and dengue.

“First, we were refugees of the World War then phosphate mining pushed us out. We can’t be displaced a third time because of climate change,” says Pilitati, whose family is from Banaba Island in Kiribati. “This time if we lose our home, we will lose our identity, our culture. It is unacceptable.”

The Republic of Kiribati is made up of 33 atolls and has a population of 93,000. Most of Kiribati – one of the Pacific nations most threatened by climate change – is less than 4 metres above sea level.

“It is hard on the young people. The Pacific has always had a great deal of migration for a number of reasons, but in the past people always expected to be able to return to their home countries,” explains Agrees Marstella Jacks, former Attorney General of the Federated States of Micronesia. “Now they are faced with the possibility of never being able to return to their homeland. We will become a displaced and dispossessed people.”

The Oxfam report argues that unless developed countries take urgent action to curb emissions, some Pacific island nations face the very real threat of becoming uninhabitable.

The report calls on Australia – one of the biggest polluters in the world – and New Zealand to reduce carbon emissions by 40 percent by 2020 and by 95 percent by 2050. It also urged the two governments to contribute more money toward helping these island nations adapt to climate change.

Australia has committed to reducing its emissions by five per cent by 2020 – which could go up to 25 per cent if a global agreement is reached at the Copenhagen Climate Change conference in December.

As someone who has seen the inside of many high-level international negotiations, Jacks knows the dangers of smaller countries being bullied by threats and bribes from their bigger neighbours.

“The time for talking is over. The most recent IPCC [Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change] report suggests that low-lying countries such as Tuvalu have less than 30 years before they become inhabitable. It’s widely accepted that this is based on relatively conservative and out of date data, so you can see the incredible urgency for the people of the Pacific,” says Jacks, who has focused much of her academic and legal work on the law of the seas and the battle against over fishing – an especially relevant issue in the Pacific.

Tuvalu consists of four reef islands and five true atolls – islands of coral that encircle a lagoon partially or completely. It is the fourth smallest country in the world, measuring just 26 square kilometres and home to 12,000 people.

With most of the country less than three feet above sea level with the highest elevation at 15 feet, Tuvalu is vulnerable to any future sea level rise and extreme weather events. It is also affected by ‘king tide’, which can raise the sea level higher than a normal high tide, and this may threaten to submerge the nation entirely.

“Becoming climate refugees is absolutely intolerable to us. Our island land mass is shrinking due to coastal erosion, islets are disappearing, supply of crabs, fish and coconuts on which my people survive are diminishing,” Reverend Tafue Lusama, Chairperson of the Climate Action Network in Tuvalu, told IPS. “It is impacting on our livelihood, our economy,” Lusama stressed.

“There is almost no reliable supply of potable water. Salt water is getting into underground water and we have to rely on rain water for drinking, but this year we had a long drought during the rainy season,” says Lusama, who grew up on Nukulaelae, the smallest island in Tuvalu, but now lives in the national capital, Funafuti.

Lusama wants a coherent and realistic deal to come out of Copenhagen as his country aims to become the first zero-carbon country after vowing to generate all of its energy from renewable sources by 2020.

The Oxfam report details how Pacific Islanders are already adapting to their changing climate.

Fijians, for example, are taking steps to ‘climate-proof’ their villages. They are testing salt-resistant varieties of staple foods, planting mangroves and native grasses to halt coastal erosion, protecting fresh water wells from saltwater intrusion and relocating homes and community buildings away from vulnerable coastlines.

Acutely aware of the impact climate change is having on the future prospects and outlook of young people, Pilitati says, “We are getting young people involved in growing mangroves to stop tides. The Education Department is running a compulsory adaptation program on how to combat climate change in primary and high schools.”

Another report this week from the Australian Institute think tank, calls on Australia to develop immigration policies toward providing refuge to Pacific island communities which may be displaced by climate change.

At the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ Summit scheduled to take place in Cairns, Australia from Aug. 4 to 7, many Island leaders want climate to be at the top of the agenda. They will push the Australian and New Zealand governments to commit to climate mitigation, not just adaptation.