Bangladesh on the road to COP15 in Copenhagen

IN Copenhagen, Bangladesh’s voice will be more important than ever and the presence of a strong team of negotiators is of vast importance. As a forefront country in addressing the challenges of climate change, it is crucial that Bangladesh plays an active role at the conference in order to demonstrate the consequences of climate change to the world and to represent a voice for the developing countries.

 COP15 — a window of opportunity to act on climate change
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the world today. To meet this challenge, most countries, back in 1992, joined the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The objective of UNFCCC is to stabilise the atmospheric content of greenhouse gases at a level that prevents dangerous human-made climate change. The convention is a “framework convention.” This means that it is a comprehensive tool for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, but contains no binding obligations to reduce them.

Each year, countries from all over the world meet for the annual climate change conference (Conference of Parties). From December 7-18 Denmark will be the host of the 15th Conference of Parties. The focus of the negotiations in Copenhagen will be the need to agree upon a new fair, ambitious and global agreement on climate change.

It took nearly eight years to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, and the Copenhagen conference represents almost the last chance to agree on a new agreement if it is to be approved and ratified prior to the expiry of the binding commitments in the Kyoto Protocol in 2012.

In 2007, at the climate change conference in Bali, all countries agreed to the Bali Action Plan with the objective of an agreed outcome in Copenhagen in 2009. The action plan set out the structure of a future agreement with a long-term shared vision and four building blocks for a new agreement — technology, finance, mitigation and adaptation.

It is the ambition that a new global climate change agreement, like the Kyoto Protocol today, will regulate the generated part of global greenhouse gas emissions in order to curb global warming. The negative effects of climate change are felt all over the world, with heavy rainfalls, devastating storms and increasing droughts.

Global warming is threatening the habitats of plants and animals, pressuring food production and melting the ice caps in Greenland and the Arctic, causing sea level to rise. The temperature rise is caused by increased amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, not least CO2, which is mainly related to human use of fossil fuels such as coal and oil. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the damage caused by global warming will be irreversible if CO2 emissions are not reduced within the next ten years.

 

Denmark hosts COP15
COP15 will be hosted in the Danish capital Copenhagen from December 7 to December 18. Denmark takes its role as host for COP15 very seriously. “To host such an event is a great honour. Denmark takes on this task humbly and well aware that no matter how hard we try, we have no guarantee for success. We will work for an ambitious result. But by disagreeing, one country can make the whole thing tumble. As hosts, we, therefore, have special obligations. We must listen and mediate in order to make sure that we reach an agreement and that all countries are on board, says Connie Hedegaard, Danish Minister for Climate.

The goal of the conference is to enter into a binding global climate change agreement, which will follow the Kyoto Protocol, when it first commitment period expires in 2012.

COP15 will be one of the biggest UN conferences ever held outside New York and Geneva, with an estimated attendance of between 12,000 to 15,000 delegates, including NGOs and journalists. The Conference will take place in “Bella Center.” A number of related events will be hosted in and around Copenhagen in the period up to and during COP15, all aimed at creating support for a new global climate deal and drawing attention to the fight against climate change.

 

The Danish example — towards an energy efficient and climate friendly economy
A central argument for resisting binding targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions is concern for economic growth. However, experience from Denmark shows that with a persistent and active energy policy focused on increasing energy efficiency it is possible to maintain high economic growth, while at the same time reducing the dependency on fossil fuels and protecting the environment.

Denmark’s energy efficiency is today among the highest in the EU, and continues to rise each year. The country has one of the most efficient uses of energy and a low level of CO2-emission in relation to production levels, compared to other EU and OECD countries. Since 1980, Denmark’s economy has grown by 78%, alongside nearly stable energy consumption and reduced CO2 emissions.

The country’s sustainable growth has been created by a combination of investments in technological development, green taxes and a political effort to promote the use of renewable energy. Since the 1970s Denmark has seen major investments and research into alternative energy sources, especially wind, and efficiency improvements of existing power stations.

Today, renewable energy comprises 19% of overall energy consumption. This has increased energy supply security and contributed significantly to the attainment of Denmark’s climate targets. From 1990 to 2007, economic activity in Denmark increased by more than 45%, while CO2 emissions decreased by more than 13%.

 

Copenhagen
The Danish capital has preserved its old-world charm of cobbled streets and historic buildings, whilst becoming a distinctly modern city with trendy cafes and plenty of green spaces. The city is a good showcase of Denmark’s sustainable approach, as it is the first in the world so far to put Agenda 21 into practice. Agenda 21 is a program launched at the 1992 UN conference in Rio to promote sustainable development globally and locally.

The overall goal of the strategy is to make the city the world’s eco-metropolis by 2015, by striving for human, cultural, and economic development to meet sustainability criteria. The strategy focuses on putting global thinking into local action and covers a wide range of initiatives, including cleaner air, cleaner water and healthier food, less traffic noise, better use of resources, more green areas, and greater biodiversity.

So far, Copenhagen municipality has made the harbour clean enough to swim in, and has introduced one of the best waste handling systems in the world. Almost 90% of all construction waste is recycled and 75% of all household refuse is incinerated. The energy resulting from the incineration is used for district heating and electricity.

Copenhagen is also famous for its bicycling population, as a staggering 36% of inhabitants rely on bicycles as their main means of transport. The city plans to increase the number of bicyclists to 50% by 2015, through a doubling of spending on bicycle lanes and bicycle stands and other initiatives. When it comes to food, Copenhageners also figure amongst the most environmentally conscious in the world. 51% of food consumption in public institutions and a world record of 23% of private food consumption are organic.

The official COP15 website www.cop15.dk is available in seven languages and provides daily updates on COP15 and the climate change issues in general.

 His Excellency Einar Hebogard Jensen is Ambassador of Denmark to Bangladesh.

Source: The Daily Star, 28 August 2009

Climate change to challenge US military on many levels: NYT

Climate change will pose profound strategic challenges to the United States in coming decades, raising the prospect of military intervention to deal with the effects of violent storms, drought, mass migration and pandemics, The New York Times reported late Saturday.
   Citing military and intelligence analysts, the newspaper said climate-induced crises could topple governments, feed terrorist movements or destabilise entire regions.
   Analysts, experts at the Pentagon and intelligence agencies for the first time are taking a serious look at the national security implications of climate change, the report said.
   Recent war games and intelligence studies conclude that over the next 20 to 30 years, vulnerable regions, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South and Southeast Asia, will face the prospect of food shortages, water crises and catastrophic flooding driven by climate change that could demand an US humanitarian relief or military response, the paper noted.
   An exercise at the National Defence University last December explored the potential impact of a flood in Bangladesh that sent hundreds of thousands of refugees streaming into neighbouring India, touching off religious conflict, the spread of contagious diseases and vast damage to infrastructure, according to The Times.
   ‘It gets real complicated real quickly,’ the report quoted as saying Amanda Dory, deputy assistant secretary of defence for strategy, who is working with a Pentagon group assigned to incorporate climate change into national security strategy planning.
   A changing climate presents a range of challenges for the military, the paper pointed out, because many of its critical installations are vulnerable to rising seas and storm surges.
   In Florida, Homestead Air Force Base was essentially destroyed by Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and Hurricane Ivan badly damaged Naval Air Station Pensacola in 2004, The Times noted.
   Military planners are studying ways to protect the major naval stations in Norfolk, Virginia, and San Diego, California, from climate-induced rising seas and severe storms.
   Another vulnerable installation is Diego Garcia, an atoll in the Indian Ocean, that serves as a logistics hub for US and British forces and sits a few feet above sea level.

Source: The Daily New Age, 10 August 2009

British-Bangladesh Initiative: Groups to study climate change

Enquiry report to be submitted at Copenhagen summit to ensure equity

Staff Correspondent

The all-party parliamentary groups on climate change and environment of Bangladesh and the UK have teamed up to launch a joint enquiry into climate change.

The enquiry report will be presented at the Copenhagen climate change summit and will be sent to the two governments. It is anticipated that it will also be discussed in Bangladesh and UK parliaments, says a press statement.

The parliamentary committees of the two countries–one in a least developed country grappling with adaptation and the other in one of the richest countries in the developed world professing mitigation–will conduct the enquiry specifically on “Climate change equity: is it a plan, an aspiration or a fashion statement?”

Chairs of the two parliamentary groups, Saber Hossain Chowdhury of Bangladesh and Colin Challen of the UK, yesterday launched the enquiry, which seeks to gain a better insight on how the two countries view the challenges of climate change equity.

Although least responsible for the problem, Bangladesh is a country most at threat from climate change while the UK is often regarded as one of those–if not the leader–in shaping climate change policy.

In the statement, Saber Hossain Chowdhury said climate change for Bangladesh is a development challenge as well as an issue of human rights and justice.

“An equitable deal in Copenhagen will only be possible if we are able to have clarity and consensus on the concept of equity in climate change negotiations and this would then hopefully pave the way for resolving the burden sharing riddle. This enquiry will bring this question into sharp focus,” he said.

Colin Challen said the need for the enquiry is overwhelming. “We want the result of this enquiry to be presented in Copenhagen.” Many countries with very low carbon dioxide footprints, like Bangladesh, are prevented from benefiting from mechanisms like the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Challen added.

He further said Bangladesh has only seen two of these projects implemented in the entire history of the CDM, which for a country of 100 million plus population is clearly inequitable. Countries like Bangladesh did not cause climate change, but they also seem to be penalised for it. This enquiry will look at this and related issues.

In the statement, Saber and Challen sought for evidences by October 12, within 3,000 words and in electronic form, from all who are concerned to achieve, and are working towards, an equitable and fully inclusive deal on climate change in Copenhagen.

The submissions might be sent to saberchowdhury@yahoo.com  and colinchallenmp@parliament.uk.

Source: The Daily Star, 09 August 2009

Uncertainties surround future monsoons

It is almost halfway through the rainy season, and the monsoon in many parts of South Asia continues to remain unreliable.

In some places it has been crippling weak, while in others it has been devastatingly intense.

There are places reeling from drought, yet at the same time there are areas that have been hit by torrential rains, triggering floods and landslides in a very short span of time.

This has made the lives of millions of people difficult and has left them increasingly worried for the future.

Very little of the arable land is irrigated, and local populations depend on monsoon rainfall for agriculture.

Crops in the region are dependent upon the annual monsoon rains

The monsoon clouds have weakened in several parts of the region and the variable and erratic rains have left weather forecasters scratching their heads.

This failure of the monsoons to behave as expected has led to the question of whether climate change is to blame.

Experts differ on whether these changes are directly linked to climate.

“This year’s monsoon behaviour cannot yet be attributed to climate change as it is still within the observed natural variability of the monsoon,” said Krishna Kumar Kanikicharla, a scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

“Our assessment of climate model simulations for the current and the next century indicate no significant deviation until the middle of the 21st Century. Thereafter, the monsoon rainfall will continue to increase by 8-10% from current levels.”

A regional research centre in Bangladesh found what it called “cyclic changes”, but has identified no effects so far that can be attributed to climate change.

A gloomy forecast

The South Asian monsoon normally begins in June and lasts around four months. The Indian Meteorological Department in April had forecast an optimistic 96% of long-term average rainfall.

Without the rains, young crops soon perish and die

But in the last week of June, by which time the monsoon clouds should normally have moved northward from the Indian ocean, they were hardly moving.

With farmers in Northern India postponing their crop plantations and authorities cutting the supply of stored water for irrigation, the government had to scale down its rainfall forecast to 93% of the long-term average rainfall.

In neighbouring Bangladesh, the situation was even worse; it saw 80% lower rainfall than what would normally be the case.

An unusually long dry spell fanned several wildfires earlier this year. Nepal too saw delays in the arrival of its precious monsoon clouds.

When they reached northern areas of the region by the third week of July, many places began to see heavy precipitation.

Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka, saw more than 33cm of rainfall in about 24 hours – the greatest amount for many years.

Floods have wreaked havoc in many parts of north-east India, and nearly three dozen people have died in Nepal as a result of monsoon-triggered landslides.

At least another dozen are missing from remote Nepalese mountain areas.

Yet many areas in this region still remain parched.

Until the middle of this week, northern and south-western parts of Bangladesh have had about 40% lower rainfall than the average.

Some parts of northern India have been declared drought-hit by local governments.

Almost the same is the case in eastern Nepal, where rainfall is around 50% lower than normal.

Meteorological officials in Pakistan say most parts of the country have remained more or less dry, with average rainfall limited to only 50% of normal precipitation.

“Even where it has rained, the rainfall is around 30% lower than normal,” said Qamar Zaman Chaudhary, director-general of Pakistan’s met office.

“Figures [from recent years] show that monsoon rainfall is gradually decreasing – year on year.”

Patchy cloud

Over the past five years, even though total rainfall has not deviated far from the average in these countries, the distribution has been quite uneven.

Farmers could struggle to keep their crops alive

Some places have experienced heavy rainfall while others have seen far smaller amounts of rain and have been hit by drought.

And dangerously unpredictable rainfall such as that which claimed hundreds of lives in Mumbai in 2005 is on the rise.

In yet another unusual development, places that received smaller amounts of rainfall have begun to receive more rain. While what used to be relatively wet areas are now becoming drier.

Some researchers suggest that this is a natural “shift” in the pattern of rainfall.

“We studied three 30-year window periods from 1951 to 2000 and found that there was a slow shift in the rainfall scenarios,” said Sujit Kumar Deb Sarma, a researcher with the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Meteorological Research Centre in Bangladesh.

“Places that got more rain are receiving lower rainfall and vice versa.

“But we also found that after some time the rainfall patterns go back to what they were before and slowly start changing again. It’s a cyclic change that has been happening [for] years.”

But authorities in Pakistan believe the falling monsoon rainfall may have been the result of climate change.

“There may have been some impacts of climate change,” said Mr Chaudhry of the Pakistan Met Office.

“We know that the El Nino events have been affecting our rainfall all these years, but climate change could be aggravating the situation even more.”

Meteorologists in Nepal too think global warming may have some role in the changing monsoon pattern the country has been experiencing.

“There are so many factors including the El Nino effect that have been affecting the monsoon but we cannot say that these changes are not because of global warming,” said Mani Ratna Shakya, head of the weather forecasting division.

The monsoon season is welcomed by most people in an otherwise arid region

 

International studies have also pointed at the relationship between the monsoon and climate change.

A study by researchers at Purdue University, US, found that the South Asian monsoon could be weakened and delayed as a result of rising temperatures in the future.

“Climate change could influence monsoon dynamics and cause lower summer precipitation, a delay to the start of the monsoon season and longer breaks between the rainy periods.”

Another report recently prepared for the Australian government has shown that potentially greater threats could be abrupt changes to the oceans and atmosphere that lead to irreversible switches in weather or ocean patterns – so-called tipping points.

“An example is the Indian monsoon. According to some models that could switch into a drier mode in a matter of years,” the report’s author Will Steffen, executive director of the Climate Change Institute at the Australian National University, told Reuters.

The fourth assessment report of the IPCC had this to say about the monsoon: “It is likely that warming associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will cause an increase of Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability.

“Changes in the monsoon mean duration and strength depend on the details of the (greenhouse gases) emission scenario.”

Do the changes mean weather forecasters will have a tough time ahead predicting the monsoon as they have had this year?

Indian Meteorological Department chief BP Yadav admitted that could be the case: “There are already some indications of increase in the variability of weather parameters, so when you have a high variability in any events like rainfall or temperature, definitely the work of predicting them becomes more difficult,” he said.

Source: BBC News

CLIMATE CHANGE: 75 Million Environmental Refugees to Plague Asia-Pacific

SYDNEY, Aug 4 (IPS) – Pacific Islanders, aiming to secure their very survival, are calling for immediate commitments from the developed world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 45 percent by 2020.

“For us, climate change is a reality. We have been experiencing high tidal waves, which has not been the case earlier,” Pelenise Alofa Pilitati, Chairperson of the Church Education Director’s Association in Kiribati, told IPS. “High tides and sea level rise will submerge our homeland. We don’t want to become environmental refugees.”

Climate change could produce eight million refugees in the Pacific Islands, along with 75 million refugees in the Asia Pacific region in the next 40 years, warns a new report by aid agency, Oxfam Australia.

The report points out that “For countries like Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Marshall Islands, Fiji, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea and the Federated States of Micronesia, climate change is not something that could happen in the future but something they are experiencing now.”

The Oxfam report documents how people are coping with more frequent flooding and storm surges, losing land and being forced from their homes, facing increased food and water shortages, and dealing with rising incidence of malaria and dengue.

“First, we were refugees of the World War then phosphate mining pushed us out. We can’t be displaced a third time because of climate change,” says Pilitati, whose family is from Banaba Island in Kiribati. “This time if we lose our home, we will lose our identity, our culture. It is unacceptable.”

The Republic of Kiribati is made up of 33 atolls and has a population of 93,000. Most of Kiribati – one of the Pacific nations most threatened by climate change – is less than 4 metres above sea level.

“It is hard on the young people. The Pacific has always had a great deal of migration for a number of reasons, but in the past people always expected to be able to return to their home countries,” explains Agrees Marstella Jacks, former Attorney General of the Federated States of Micronesia. “Now they are faced with the possibility of never being able to return to their homeland. We will become a displaced and dispossessed people.”

The Oxfam report argues that unless developed countries take urgent action to curb emissions, some Pacific island nations face the very real threat of becoming uninhabitable.

The report calls on Australia – one of the biggest polluters in the world – and New Zealand to reduce carbon emissions by 40 percent by 2020 and by 95 percent by 2050. It also urged the two governments to contribute more money toward helping these island nations adapt to climate change.

Australia has committed to reducing its emissions by five per cent by 2020 – which could go up to 25 per cent if a global agreement is reached at the Copenhagen Climate Change conference in December.

As someone who has seen the inside of many high-level international negotiations, Jacks knows the dangers of smaller countries being bullied by threats and bribes from their bigger neighbours.

“The time for talking is over. The most recent IPCC [Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change] report suggests that low-lying countries such as Tuvalu have less than 30 years before they become inhabitable. It’s widely accepted that this is based on relatively conservative and out of date data, so you can see the incredible urgency for the people of the Pacific,” says Jacks, who has focused much of her academic and legal work on the law of the seas and the battle against over fishing – an especially relevant issue in the Pacific.

Tuvalu consists of four reef islands and five true atolls – islands of coral that encircle a lagoon partially or completely. It is the fourth smallest country in the world, measuring just 26 square kilometres and home to 12,000 people.

With most of the country less than three feet above sea level with the highest elevation at 15 feet, Tuvalu is vulnerable to any future sea level rise and extreme weather events. It is also affected by ‘king tide’, which can raise the sea level higher than a normal high tide, and this may threaten to submerge the nation entirely.

“Becoming climate refugees is absolutely intolerable to us. Our island land mass is shrinking due to coastal erosion, islets are disappearing, supply of crabs, fish and coconuts on which my people survive are diminishing,” Reverend Tafue Lusama, Chairperson of the Climate Action Network in Tuvalu, told IPS. “It is impacting on our livelihood, our economy,” Lusama stressed.

“There is almost no reliable supply of potable water. Salt water is getting into underground water and we have to rely on rain water for drinking, but this year we had a long drought during the rainy season,” says Lusama, who grew up on Nukulaelae, the smallest island in Tuvalu, but now lives in the national capital, Funafuti.

Lusama wants a coherent and realistic deal to come out of Copenhagen as his country aims to become the first zero-carbon country after vowing to generate all of its energy from renewable sources by 2020.

The Oxfam report details how Pacific Islanders are already adapting to their changing climate.

Fijians, for example, are taking steps to ‘climate-proof’ their villages. They are testing salt-resistant varieties of staple foods, planting mangroves and native grasses to halt coastal erosion, protecting fresh water wells from saltwater intrusion and relocating homes and community buildings away from vulnerable coastlines.

Acutely aware of the impact climate change is having on the future prospects and outlook of young people, Pilitati says, “We are getting young people involved in growing mangroves to stop tides. The Education Department is running a compulsory adaptation program on how to combat climate change in primary and high schools.”

Another report this week from the Australian Institute think tank, calls on Australia to develop immigration policies toward providing refuge to Pacific island communities which may be displaced by climate change.

At the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ Summit scheduled to take place in Cairns, Australia from Aug. 4 to 7, many Island leaders want climate to be at the top of the agenda. They will push the Australian and New Zealand governments to commit to climate mitigation, not just adaptation.